Confirming my forecast. No significant updates since my last forecast. Some experts are beginning to suggest that mirror biology be addressed at the national and international level.
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 20 | 289 | 267 | 437 |
| Comments | 2 | 18 | 263 | 253 | 302 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 13 | 35 | 27 | 38 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 66 | 57 | 127 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
56%
(0%)
Yes
44%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Governments may not consider it a risk that's acute enough to merit attention.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my forecast. There hasn't been a breakdown in relations between Egypt/Jordan/UAE and any of the other countries in the past couple of weeks.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Relations between the US and Egypt, Jordan or the UAE could conceivably break down over the issue of Israel.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
As I mentioned in my previous forecast, a military cooperation agreement between Togo and Russia was ratified by Russia's parliament.
A few days ago, there was a meeting between Togo's leader Gnassingbé and Russia's President Putin in the Kremlin. According to Le Monde, Putin and Gnassingbé confirmed that agreement, which "provides for Togolese soldiers to be trained by Russian instructors, as well as intelligence sharing and joint military exercises. It also allows each country to use the other's military ports."
This sounds very similar to the agreement with Equatorial Guinea. The question is just whether there will be an actual deployment in the next month or so. So, I'm confirming my forecast despite the passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Deployment could happen any day now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my forecast, as there is no indication that anything has changed with respect to the stances of Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea since my last forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's plausible that Italy, Japan and South Korea will recognise Palestine in the next decade, if not in the next couple of months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing my probability estimate by a couple of percentage points because of the passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong because the Rapid Support Forces seem to have the momentum again, having taken El-Fasher and now making moves on Kordofan, which is closer to Khartoum than El-Fasher.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
With one month left to go, I'm reducing my probability estimate to below 0.5%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could still be a short ceasefire, perhaps over the Christmas period.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my forecast. No significant updates since my last forecast. Some experts are beginning to suggest that mirror biology be addressed at the WHO and the BWC.
Why might you be wrong?
It might not be considered a risk that's acute enough to merit attention from these agencies and institutions.