DKC

About:

I love dogs, travel, writing, and geopolitical forecasting. And I feel fortunate to have all of those in my life.

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2022 Season Stats

-0.674956

Relative Brier Score

585

Forecasts

597

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 8 23 296 23 2561
Comments 8 25 345 25 1915
Questions Forecasted 8 10 26 10 114
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 5 139 5 1857
 Definitions
New Badge
DKC earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

 Affirming. It was mentioned as a rational for moving the Doomsday clock closer (as reported by @VidurKapur ) and as long as it stays in the news it increases the chance of being addressed. Regardless of whether there is enough progress to be a serious threat, IMHO.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

It could be disproved in the next 4 years. But seems unlikely to me.

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New Badge
DKC earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Jan 2026

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
DKC earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jan 2026

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The graph we were given suggests it fell last summer (which is opposite of what our text in Background information says, unless I've misread it)

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate

This article suggests it is slowly coming down for the last several months, So I'm thinking it is trending in the right direction.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/01/23/china-yough-unemployment-rate/2681769213520/

FTA:

Jan. 23 (Asia Today) -- China's youth unemployment rate remained elevated in December but declined for a fourth consecutive month, offering limited signs of improvement amid continued labor market pressure on young job seekers.

The unemployment rate for urban residents aged 16 to 24, excluding students, stood at 16.5% in December, down 0.4 percentage points from November, 

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Why might you be wrong?

China is not always honest with statistics, so there could be corrections that show an increase. Although, IMHO, they are more likely to cover up High unemployment than Low unemployment.

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New Prediction
Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?
DKC made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
93%
Yes
7%
No
Why do you think you're right?

No time for elections, and I don't think Rodriguez or Trump want elections in the near future. So far she is cooperating with him, and from what I've been reading Trump and his people don't really have another option they are comfortable with. I'll think she'll be in there for at least 6 months.

And so far Trump seems happy with her:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/watch-trump-says-hes-opening-up-all-commercial-airspace-over-venezuela

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Why might you be wrong?

Trump is unpredictable, if Rodriguez decides to really stand up to him, he could take her out too. But I think that unlikely.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Remaining high based on the Doomsday Clock mentioning Mirror biology as a factor.  Thanks to @VidurKapur and @404_NOT_FOUND  for bringing that to my attention.

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Why might you be wrong?

A different global crisis could occur and drive this out of the news.

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New Prediction
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
DKC made their 17th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30% (-7%)
Less than $350 million
47% (+7%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
18% (0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
3% (0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
2% (0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?

January was a high month, so I'm edging a few more points out of the lowest bin. I don't think the future trend will continue at this same rate so I'm only moving up to the next lowest bin. IMHO the next few months will indicate whether January was a blip, or a trend change.

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Why might you be wrong?

It is a strange new world these days, and investors may want to diversify to European projects rather than the US.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

 For those thinking Xi would focus on the South China Sea... here is some evidence you might be correct.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2026/01/27/china-appears-set-on-militarizing-another-reef-in-the-south-china-sea/

FTA:

Satellite imagery appears to show China is set to reclaim land on another reef in the South China Sea for yet another military base.


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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
DKC made their 60th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
0% (0%)
Georgia
0% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?

Moldova pulled out of the CIS. That won't make Putin happy IMHO


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Why might you be wrong?

A lot can happen in a year.

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