Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
52 Forecasts
52 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2025 08:01PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 24, 2025 08:01PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
55 Forecasts
55 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 09:02PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 09:02PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 6% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
41 Forecasts
41 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 09:13PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 09:13PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 17% | -13% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 83% | +13% | +1% |
Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 09:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 26, 2025 09:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | 46% | +19% | -1% |
| No | 35% | 54% | -19% | +1% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 10:52PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 10:52PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $350 million | 36% | 28% | +8% | +2% |
| More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million | 38% | 45% | -7% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million | 18% | 22% | -4% | -2% |
| More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| More than or equal to $800 million | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts
34 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:00AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 03:00AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:38AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 01:38AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 29% | +11% | +0% |
| No | 60% | 71% | -11% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 01:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 71% | 67% | +4% | -1% |
| 30 days | 2% | 6% | -4% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 9% | 6% | +3% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 9% | 5% | +4% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 9% | 16% | -7% | +1% |
Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 05, 2025 10:10PM UTC
(14 hours ago)
Dec 05, 2025 10:10PM UTC
(14 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68% | 64% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 32% | 36% | -4% | +0% |