Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
56 Forecasts
56 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 12:36AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 12:36AM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 6% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts
42 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 04:52PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 04:52PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 17% | -14% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 83% | +14% | +1% |
Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 04:59PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Dec 09, 2025 04:59PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | 45% | +20% | -1% |
| No | 35% | 55% | -20% | +1% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 10, 2025 04:50PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Dec 10, 2025 04:50PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $350 million | 36% | 28% | +8% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million | 38% | 45% | -7% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million | 18% | 22% | -4% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $800 million | 3% | 1% | +2% | 0% |
Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 08:42PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 12, 2025 08:42PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 28% | +7% | +0% |
| No | 65% | 72% | -7% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
36 Forecasts
36 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 05:40PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 16, 2025 05:40PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 1% | 4% | -3% | 0% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 05:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 16, 2025 05:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 69% | 68% | +1% | +0% |
| 30 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 7% | 5% | +2% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 7% | 5% | +2% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 17% | 16% | +1% | +0% |
Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 06:48PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Dec 17, 2025 06:48PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 63% | +7% | +0% |
| No | 30% | 37% | -7% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
54 Forecasts
54 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 07:03PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Dec 17, 2025 07:03PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | 0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |