The sanctions may finally be doing what they were designed to do. And Putin will need more than a year for the economy to recover.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-oil-exports-war-funding-collapse-sanctions-ukraine-war-2025-12
FTA:
The revenue collapse stems from a combination of a stronger ruble and sagging Brent prices, widening discounts on Russian crude as buyers demand steeper price cuts to offset the risk of sanctions.
The divergence between stable exports and collapsing revenue has major implications for Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
Oil and gas revenues have historically accounted for more than a third of Russia's federal budget, and energy remains one of the country's most significant sources of funding.
But even as Russia boosts weapons production and ramps up defense spending, the money flowing in to support that buildup is shrinking.
Why do you think you're right?
I think Moldova continues to be a thorn in Putin's side:
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/08/russia-tests-crypto-funded-hybrid-warfare-on-moldova-latest-experiment-costs-it-107-million/
Armenia seems to mostly seemed handled, and Georgia has a puppet government that makes Putin happy IMHO
I'm not higher on Moldova only because I think finally the sanctions are having an impact on Russia:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/07/putin-accept-trump-deal-russia-economy-ukraine-war
Why might you be wrong?
Putin has dug himself out of other jams, And perhaps his war economy needs there to be a war to support itself, so if peace comes with Ukraine reduced sanctions he might need or at least have a reason to go after Moldova.