DKC

Dropping a couple of points because of the short timeline, and nothing in the recent news. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if this happens in the coming months.

Moving a couple of points lower. I think this is a bit higher bar and in some cases a shorter timeline that other questions on this top, thus I will remain lower.

Affirming, I'm waiting to see what January and February bring. I expect the 2025 pattern to continue, but if it doesn't I'll be adjusting higher.

It is a long timeline and things could change. But with Trump's recent published war doctrine:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/breaking-down-trumps-2025-national-security-strategy/

And as noted in a post by @LogicCurve , the Trump administration is canceling warship construction. It appears that China doesn't have to worry about the  US.

Additionaly, Russia is unlikely to beconsidered a competitor to China anymore. Russia's warships have been hit hard by Ukraine, and they can't seem to win a war that they've started with a country that has 1/3 to 1/4 of the population.

And if I take this in conjuction with the surge in exports China has had as a result of Trump's tariffs, It would behoove China to play nice and continue the velvet diplomacy that emphasizes trade and aid, over displays of brute military strength.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/12/8/china-trade-surplus-tops-1tn-for-first-time-amid-pivot-to-counter-us-lull

I think Moldova continues to be a thorn in Putin's side:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/08/russia-tests-crypto-funded-hybrid-warfare-on-moldova-latest-experiment-costs-it-107-million/

Armenia seems to mostly seemed handled, and Georgia has a puppet government that makes Putin happy IMHO

I'm not higher on Moldova only because I think finally the sanctions are having an impact on Russia:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/07/putin-accept-trump-deal-russia-economy-ukraine-war

The sanctions may finally be doing what they were designed to do. And Putin will need more than a year for the economy to recover.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-oil-exports-war-funding-collapse-sanctions-ukraine-war-2025-12

FTA:

The revenue collapse stems from a combination of a stronger ruble and sagging Brent prices, widening discounts on Russian crude as buyers demand steeper price cuts to offset the risk of sanctions.

The divergence between stable exports and collapsing revenue has major implications for Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.

Oil and gas revenues have historically accounted for more than a third of Russia's federal budget, and energy remains one of the country's most significant sources of funding.

But even as Russia boosts weapons production and ramps up defense spending, the money flowing in to support that buildup is shrinking.

Moving up a couple of points. It's in the news at Stanford:

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/health-policy-forum-possible-peril-engineered-mirror-life

IMHO makes it slightly more likely to be formally addressed in a major meeting.

FTA:

While such “mirror life” is unlikely for at least a decade and would require substantial funding and major breakthroughs, it’s the kind of risk we should anticipate now, according to David Relman, MD, a professor of medicine and of microbiology and immunology and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

“For me, it was two years of gradually coming to grips with the possibility that, now, for the first time, there was something that could conceivably threaten much of life on the planet,” said Relman, a founding member of the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity and a former senior advisor in the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy at the White House.

Relman was a headliner at the recent Stanford Health Policy Forum: Engineered Threats to Global Health, in conversation with Hank Greely, JD, a law professor who focuses on ethical, legal, and social issues in the biosciences and director of the Center for Law and the Biosciences at Stanford Law School. The talk was moderated by Paul Costello, an adjunct professor in the Stanford Department of Medicine.

In 2024 there were no seed round funding awarded in December. I expect that may not be unusual, so I'm thinking we are probably at the total for 2025. As I expect the world to continue with it's volatile path for the next year, I'm thinking by doubling what we have for this year, we wind up in the lowest bin.