catching up
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
44
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 31 | 749 | 44 | 2498 |
| Comments | 4 | 17 | 314 | 17 | 470 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 21 | 69 | 21 | 180 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 131 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
92%
(+7%)
Yes
8%
(-7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-32%)
Yes
65%
(+32%)
No
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(-15%)
Yes
67%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Delays...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
3%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
89%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
6%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(-11%)
Less than $350 million
44%
(+8%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
13%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
2%
(+1%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
adjusting
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
Why do you think you're right?
more adjustign
Why might you be wrong?
NA