Confirmed previous forecast
-0.131209
Relative Brier Score
713
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 16 | 66 | 774 | 713 | 2410 |
| Comments | 6 | 23 | 370 | 331 | 435 |
| Questions Forecasted | 15 | 31 | 83 | 68 | 174 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 129 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
3%
(0%)
30 days
3%
(0%)
31-60 days
1%
(0%)
61-90 days
11%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
1%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
52%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
47%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(+5%)
Less than $350 million
37%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
13%
(-4%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
2%
(-3%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(+13%)
Less than $350 million
45%
(+4%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
19%
(-10%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
2%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
1%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
Updating...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-3%)
Yes
91%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
small update
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
Why do you think you're right?
dropping
Why might you be wrong?
NA