Confirmed previous forecast
-0.802325
Relative Brier Score
834
Forecasts
48
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 29 | 85 | 792 | 749 | 2446 |
| Comments | 11 | 28 | 382 | 344 | 448 |
| Questions Forecasted | 27 | 31 | 82 | 68 | 174 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 130 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
3%
(0%)
30 days
3%
(0%)
31-60 days
1%
(0%)
61-90 days
11%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
1%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
52%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
47%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
37%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
13%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
45%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
19%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-5%)
Yes
96%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
small adjustment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files