RAND Forecasting Initiative

0.023415

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	15	42	752	55	2509
Comments	4	17	306	17	470
Questions Forecasted	15	21	69	21	180
Upvotes on Comments By This User	1	2	18	2	132
Definitions

New Prediction

Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?

Perspectus made their 2nd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

0% (0%)

Yes

100% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Perspectus made their 2nd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

19% (0%)

Yes

81% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

Perspectus made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

0% (0%)

Yes

100% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Perspectus made their 36th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

7% (0%)

Yes

93% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Perspectus made their 41st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

2% (0%)

Yes

98% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Perspectus made their 11th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

4% (0%)

Yes

96% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Perspectus made their 10th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (0%)

Yes

99% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Perspectus made their 24th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (0%)

Yes

99% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Perspectus made their 45th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

5% (0%)

Moldova

1% (0%)

Armenia

3% (0%)

Georgia

1% (0%)

Kazakhstan

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:39AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Perspectus made their 44th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

0% (0%)

Estonia

0% (0%)

Latvia

0% (0%)

Lithuania

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 02, 2026 04:38AM UTC