Confirmed previous forecast
-1.361623
Relative Brier Score
2436
Forecasts
130
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 19 | 75 | 782 | 739 | 2436 |
| Comments | 10 | 27 | 381 | 343 | 447 |
| Questions Forecasted | 17 | 31 | 82 | 68 | 174 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 130 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Quickfire Forecasts
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation,
Open RAN
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
0%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
100%
(+3%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
small adjustment
Why might you be wrong?
NA