Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2025 11:49PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 19, 2025 11:49PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 19, 2025 to May 19, 2026 | Dec 19, 2025 | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Nov 19, 2025 to May 19, 2026 | Dec 19, 2025 | 99% | +1% | +1% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 06:42AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Dec 04, 2025 06:42AM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 17% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 86% | 83% | +3% | +0% |