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Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
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Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Badge
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Top Forecaster - Apr 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Democracy? Are you kidding?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be underestimating the natural disaster resilience
Files
New Prediction
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This forecast expired on May 9, 2025 02:28AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 9, 2025 to Oct 9, 2025
25%
(0%)
No
Apr 9, 2025 to Oct 9, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
100%
(+31%)
Yes
0%
(-31%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine can't afford to keep fighting, and only has half-arsed support from NATO and EU idéologues.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know if a ceasefire will be permanent, but Ukraine will not continue like this
Files
New Badge
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Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
New Badge
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Top Forecaster - Mar 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There's no semblance of any democratic structures left in Myanmar. All the activists were killed or fled, and there's no real opposition
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Miraculous intervention by human rights organisations
Files