The European Union has made significant progress in diversifying its energy supply network over the past few years. Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as the United States, Norway, Qatar, and Algeria now make up more than 45 percent of the EU’s total gas supply. The United States alone has become a dominant supplier, accounting for nearly half of all EU LNG imports in recent quarters. This shift reflects a deliberate effort by Europe to reduce its dependence on Russian energy and strengthen its long-term energy security.
0.00674
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Despite these diversification efforts, the EU’s current gas storage levels are noticeably lower than in previous years—roughly three-quarters of last year’s capacity. This shortfall could become a serious issue if the coming winter begins early or turns out to be particularly cold. Lower reserves would likely force European governments and energy companies to increase imports to avoid shortages, putting additional strain on supply chains and potentially driving up prices across the region.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The Trump administration has a clear anti-regulation approach. They canceled Biden’s AI executive order and want to remove rules that could slow down AI development, aiming to keep the U.S. ahead of other countries.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If something serious goes wrong with AI like a security breach, a harmful accident, or a dangerous new technology politicians could feel strong pressure to make new rules quickly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Wider Open RAN adoption would erode Huawei’s dominance by opening space for competitors and weakening the benefits of its integrated, vendor-locked model.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The shift to 6G and AI-RAN will increase demand for standardized and interoperable systems, pushing the industry toward more open architectures.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
European countries don’t like taking big military risks. They try to avoid getting directly into wars. Instead, they help by sending weapons, giving money, and training soldiers. This way, they still support the fight without putting their own troops in danger or starting bigger conflict. They want to help, but carefully.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
European leaders already made big promises and took strong positions. Now, their reputation is on the line. They want to show they still matter in global politics, especially when the U.S. is not always clear or steady in what it’s doing. At home, they may get support from people who also want Europe to stay strong and not look weak on the world stage.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Many uses of LLMs in health care do not require FDA approval at all, which reduces the motivation for companies to go through a formal and costly regulatory process. Doctors and other clinicians already use general-purpose AI tools on their own to help with tasks such as summarizing information, so businesses may feel less pressure to build LLMs directly into regulated medical products. As a result, manufacturers might choose to focus on unregulated or lightly regulated applications instead of pursuing full FDA review unless they see a clear commercial benefit.
Why might you be wrong?
The FDA has been spending a lot of time trying to understand how large language models should fit into medical device rules, and the agency today is generally more open to AI tools than it used to be. For lower-risk products, such as those in Class I, it may not be too difficult to gain clearance as long as the software is shown to work safely and predictably. In many cases, basic software testing and documentation can be enough, although the exact requirements would still depend on how the device is intended to be used. The overall environment suggests that developers of low-risk AI tools may find a smoother path than in the past.