Confirmed previous forecast
0.680528
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 27, 2025 01:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2025 to Feb 27, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Feb 27, 2025 to Feb 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2025 01:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
40%
(0%)
No
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Will not be that extreme
Files
Why might you be wrong?
External shocks
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 12, 2025 01:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
100%
No
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
No incentive for him to leave, probably will stay in power until he dies
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unless there is a major revolution in Iran, highly unlikely
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 12, 2024 01:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Donald Trump, end of Russo-Ukraine war
Why might you be wrong?