Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(7 months ago)
May 06, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 20% | 3% | +17% | +0% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(7 months ago)
May 06, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 50% | 6% | +44% | -2% |
| Armenia | 25% | 2% | +23% | +0% |
| Georgia | 25% | 3% | +22% | -2% |
| Kazakhstan | 25% | 1% | +24% | -1% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2025 04:35PM UTC
(7 months ago)
May 06, 2025 04:35PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -5% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +5% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 27, 2025 01:05PM UTC
(6 months ago)
May 27, 2025 01:05PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 90% | 67% | +23% | +2% |
| 30 days | 10% | 6% | +4% | -3% |
| 31-60 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 0% | 16% | -16% | +3% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 02, 2025 08:23PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 02, 2025 08:23PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -2% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 5% | 0% | +5% | -6% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 10% | 2% | +8% | -9% |
| Not before 2026 | 85% | 98% | -13% | +17% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 03, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 03, 2025 06:45PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 19% | +76% | -60% |
| No | 5% | 81% | -76% | +60% |