Confirmed previous forecast
0.058644
Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Current geopolitical situation leads to some kind of agreement...it doesn´t have to be written necessarily. That is the reason for my 20% for a Yes.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Sudden changes in geopolitical situation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
10%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
15%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
65%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
10%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
15%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
65%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files