Eric-Czuleger

Eric Czuleger
About:

My name is Eric Czuleger I am a PRGS student studying national security. I've spent the majority of the last decade living and working abroad after Peace Corps service in Albania (2011-2013). Mostly I worked as a journalist after training to be an open source intelligence analyst with Geopolitical Futures. I've published a couple of books but most recently a nonfiction piece about living in unrecognized nations.

Otherwise I've made most of my living by working with international startups in the blockchain and AI space. Mostly, I work with them on defining their story and creating media.

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2025 Season Stats

0.067919

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 11
Comments 0 0 0 0 9
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 10
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
Eric-Czuleger earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Apr 2025

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Eric-Czuleger earned a new badge:

Oracle - Bronze

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
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Eric-Czuleger earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Mar 2025

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Eric-Czuleger earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Feb 2025

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Eric-Czuleger earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Jan 2025

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Star Commenter - Nov 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
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Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 10 questions!
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Eric-Czuleger made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Dec 19, 2024 10:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
75%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

I think that it would demand the attention of the united states and also ensure that the US maintains a cautious stance around the hermit kingdom.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Seems like there is no reason to do this. With a stronger china and partnerships with Russia North Korea is slowly building strength.

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Eric-Czuleger made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
20%
Estonia
20%
Latvia
20%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
It is possible that he is currently blockading the region in terms of information and a full baltic invasion might make the most sense so that no one country would be able to launch a coordinated defense.
Files
Why might you be wrong?

Doesn't seem to make much sense while still in Ukraine unless he decides to simply hold eastern ukraine. and slowly move out the borders of russia.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Yes, the Chinese have been continually developing assets on the African continent.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

They could shift their focus to protecting the south china sea instead of working to counter any power projection in Africa.

Files
Files
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