Confirmed previous forecast
0.181162
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than or equal to 59
5%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
15%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
40%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
38%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
The high end of the base rate range seems sensible given that Germany is experiencing national political leadership flux, opening the opportunity for better effects for disinformation investment by Russia. At the same time, uncertainty over US policy due to a change of administration, and Russia's incentive to strike while the iron is hot, justifies departing upward from the average over time.
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Why might you be wrong?
A pronounced shift in policy toward Russian interests by the US could preempt the need for Russia to engage in disinformation activities in Germany; by the same token it could increase the incentive to engage in those activities as Russia might seek to press an advantage by unsettling Germany.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Not much time left in year. Decisions will be held pending change in administration. Sunk costs make changes in strategy absent strong incentive unlikely.
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