Confirmed previous forecast
0.619941
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 8, 2025 09:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
54%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 8, 2025 to Mar 8, 2026
46%
(0%)
No
Sep 8, 2025 to Mar 8, 2026
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 10, 2025 03:50PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
54%
Yes
Jan 10, 2025 to Jul 10, 2025
46%
No
Jan 10, 2025 to Jul 10, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Ending the war in Gaza/Lebanon is expected to occur in the coming months with an agreement. I believe this agreement will pave the way for several countries in the region to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. The entire region is moving towards normalizing relations with Israel.
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Why might you be wrong?
Establishing diplomatic relations with Israel will happen but it might take extra time.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
Yes
37%
No
I anticipate a 63% likelihood that Microsoft will announce the closure or relocation of its AI Research Lab in China (Microsoft Research Lab Asia - MSR Asia) by December 31, 2024. This expectation is grounded in recent developments and trends regarding Microsoft's operations in China.
First evidence happened in June 2023, the Financial Times reported that Microsoft was transitioning some of its leading AI experts from MSR Asia to a new research facility in Vancouver.
Further supporting this perspective is the decision made in May by Microsoft-owned LinkedIn to shut down InCareer, a simplified version of its platform that remained operational in China following LinkedIn's withdrawal from the Chinese market in 2021. This trend indicates a possible retreat from China by Microsoft, reflecting the challenges of operating in the region.
While Peter Lee, the head of Microsoft Research, has publicly denied any plans to close MSR Asia, it is essential to consider that
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