Growth of incentives for pro-Kremlin media to disinform. With Germany at a particuarly unstable point both politically and economically, this is when they would strike, particularly with the upcoming election.
0.262502
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 59
0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
16%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
32%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
52%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lack of German capability or interest to bring these cases to court.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
I trust the actions of Microsoft more than their words.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Given possible international support of HTS, resources would be drawn away from SDF, allowing for Turkey to push them back.
Why might you be wrong?
Given the instability and fear of ISIS returning, they may be backed once more by international allies.