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New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026
80%
(0%)
No
Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
59%
(0%)
Yes
41%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-15%)
Yes
93%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Maybe
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 6, 2025 04:53AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
May 6, 2025 to Nov 6, 2025
80%
(0%)
No
May 6, 2025 to Nov 6, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
59%
(0%)
Yes
41%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(-35%)
Yes
78%
(+35%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt is getting better.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
maybe global is collapes as well, so people don't do to Egypt
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 1, 2025 04:27AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
80%
(0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files