Yosoku

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Yosoku
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 28, 2025 04:49AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2026
80%
No
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Recent incidents, like suspected Russian sabotage of undersea cables in the Baltic, show a clear willingness to target NATO infrastructure. With energy and transportation systems increasingly vulnerable, a cyber attack causing physical damage, like power outages or transportation disruptions, isn’t far-fetched. NATO’s involvement in Ukraine could make such attacks more appealing as retaliation or deterrence.

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Why might you be wrong?

Executing a cyber attack with kinetic effects is complex and risks direct retaliation from NATO. Recent efforts, like NATO's Operation Baltic Sentry, have boosted defenses.. Russia might also hesitate to escalate, fearing further sanctions or isolation. Many attacks might remain digital-only (not kinetic damage).

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