I honestly don’t think they will cease fire, I do believe that they will verbally mention it (but it doesn’t count as a yes, for this forecast). I do think that they are more likely to have a trading negotiation than an attack ( due to various training wars going on).
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 2, 2025 03:28PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
Yes
May 2, 2025 to Nov 2, 2025
89%
No
May 2, 2025 to Nov 2, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
North Korea military forces decides to upon fired, rammed or otherwise physically attacked any South Korean naval or civilian vessel, island or other asset in or near the waters of the Northern Limit Line. We live in a crazy world, anything could happen in any minute.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
As stated in the previous forecast. I am not going full to a 100%, as still there must be a chance
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As stated in previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-22%)
Yes
90%
(+22%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I changed a little bit my probability response, as with the current market movements, Apple continues to be in first place, by a small margin. However, I do still believe that NVIDIA could surpass Apple in the upcoming months. One of the Reasons for this could be due to Trump’s Tariffs, which as seen had an huge impact on Apple, as they continue to see if they move production to INDIA, time will tell what happens
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A miracle occurs in hours
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
I honestly, believe that Russia will not invade , neither Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, due as Russia is more focused on Ukraine as a whole, it already has part of control of land; which is crucial for military base, rare earth lands, natural resources etc… Moreover, as now speaking Trump and Ukraine President are coming to a “potential, war resolution” (mainly based on providing the US natural resources etc…), so there will also be a Negotiation with Putin, related what does Russia get from this “agreement”. Even if this war is over, I do not consider that Russia will invade the countries stated above during 2025-2027
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Potentially, Russia may want some natural resources from these countries. However, I don’t think they will invade and drown more money to do this.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 6, 2025 06:06PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
Yes
Apr 6, 2025 to Oct 6, 2025
0%
No
Apr 6, 2025 to Oct 6, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Absolutely, they have clearly tested nuclear weapons in labs and in the sea. As mentioned above in the background information and in the news. I 100% be sure that North Korea will conduct a nuclear test, as technology involves and R&D, they must do a test. Even if it’s not public, they will do it.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is 0 information about it on the news, but clearly they will do it in the back of everyone.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Seasonal patterns:
July historically sees lower drug seizure volumes, e.g., only 39,962 lb in July 2024. Summer often means shifting trafficking strategies. Also, I do consider that the US has a lot to do with drug dealers and do have some underwater methods to allow drug to pass through.
Also, Cartels are constantly evolving, using drones, tunnels, and maritime routes, which can reduce land-based seizure rates.
CBP resource allocation:
If border agents are redirected to focus more on immigration or other issues, drug enforcement may temporarily decline.
Micro-trafficking trends:
Smaller, frequent shipments are harder to catch in large volumes, reducing the chance of big monthly totals.
Why might you be wrong?
Recent upward trend:
In April 2025, drug seizures reached 58,725 lb, and in March, 50,909 lb. This suggests an upward momentum.
Increase in drug trafficking activity:
Higher demand and the evolution of trafficking routes could lead to more interceptions if CBP maintains strong enforcement.
Improved surveillance technology:
CBP now uses AI, drones, portable x-rays, and real-time tracking tools, increasing the chance of large seizures.
Political and operational pressure:
In election years or periods of heightened political focus, border enforcement typically becomes more aggressive and better funded.