Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 11:31PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 30, 2025 11:31PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 4% | 0% | +4% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 11% | 0% | +11% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 20% | 0% | +20% | -3% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 24% | 2% | +22% | -7% |
| Not before 2026 | 41% | 98% | -57% | +10% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 11:31PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 30, 2025 11:31PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 1% | +34% | +0% |
| No | 65% | 99% | -34% | +0% |