Confirmed previous forecast
0.365626
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 25, 2025 04:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
51%
Yes
Apr 25, 2025 to Oct 25, 2025
49%
No
Apr 25, 2025 to Oct 25, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
- Punggye-ri Nuclear Testing Facility is well maintained and North Korea is also increasing its munitions manufacturing capacity.
- Kim “clarified the unshakable policy of more highly developing the nuclear forces”.
- North Korea is increasing its nuclear warhead stockpile and improving ballistic missile technology.
- North had supplied Russia with 148 KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-An attack now could provoke further tensions with the U.S., so Kim could delay the tests. Even these could have a new diplomatic relationship.
- The Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility may be very well maintained, but this does not necessarily mean a test will be conducted.
- China, as a key ally, could discourage interest in a nuclear test, with its motivation by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The conflict has been going on for years without any kind of agreement. No agreement has been reached by either side and although attempts have been made, Russia often disagrees with them. Moreover, even Putin questions the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president and rejected the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With Trump's interest in ending the war, he has already said he may impose more sanctions on Russia. His role in this war could be of great help. In addition to the possibility of both sides reaching an agreement, the best or most likely scenario would be for Ukraine to cede the territories already occupied by Russia, such as Donbas or Kherson.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
- In January 2025, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) implemented stricter controls on both domestic and foreign advanced AI chips. In addition to new obligations for companies such as BIS licensing.
- There is a growing national concern to protect the country from “malicious actors who may seek to use the advanced American technologies against us.”
- Although this new control came into force in January, compliance is mandatory as of May 2025. Normally such measures require an impact assessment before introducing a stronger measure in the same period.
Why might you be wrong?
- A sudden breakthrough in AI could change the landscape and cause geopolitical tensions to escalate sharply, as in the case of the US, the US government may feel compelled to act more quickly and impose new or expanded controls before 2025. The U.S. government could “feel” threatened and forced to act quickly and sharply.
- A change in the administration's proiority or pressure from Congress, as well as a change and new approach to national security strategy could lead to much more aggressive regulation in 2025, especially with all the geopolitical conflicts in AI out there.