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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 53 | 53 | 53 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
10%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
30%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
40%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
20%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2025 06:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2025 to Apr 2, 2026
93%
(0%)
No
Oct 2, 2025 to Apr 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2025 06:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2025 to Apr 2, 2026
85%
(0%)
No
Oct 2, 2025 to Apr 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
53%
(0%)
Yes
47%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
29%
(0%)
Yes
71%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(0%)
Yes
55%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
86%
No
Why do you think you're right?
India and China have both enhanced border military presence, raising the risk of miscalculation. However, the absence of fatalities since 2020 and ongoing diplomatic engagement suggest both sides are managing tensions to avoid escalation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Border patrol friction, nationalist rhetoric, or miscommunication could quickly spiral into violence. A single misstep in contested zones like Ladakh or Aksai Chin could trigger a lethal incident even without premeditated escalation.
Files
@yokj2000 , Do you still think there is a 14% chance these military forces will engage in lethal confrontation before the end of September?
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Power Forecaster - Jul 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.