China have recently backed the ceasefire talks between India and Pakistan. Modi and Xi will also meet at BRICS in July, likely continuing to lessen tensions between the countries. In response to tariffs, China has made India into a key consumer base in lieu of American consumers.
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Why might you be wrong?
China has been touting the the use of fighter jets as a nationalistic display of modernization of their military. The national strategy of China, as it eyes Taiwan, may incentivize China to conduct lethal operations in the Indian-Chinese border as a means to further push nationalist sentiment in the PRC.
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It is extremely unlikely that EU imports of natural gas from Russia will significantly increase in the near future. This is largely due to the European Union currently executing and publicly stating their efforts and threats to strengthen sanctions against Russia in the case there is no ceasefire agreement with Ukraine.
Why might you be wrong?
President Donald Trump recently stated that he may consider sanctions on Russia as well, but in their case, the United States is aggressively attempting to solidify a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which may loosen sanctions as a result of ceasefire agreements. The EU may also face a shock from other Natural Gas importers, which would result in the EU importing more from Russia.