Forecasted Questions
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 09:04PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 01, 2025 09:04PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 19% | +61% | -48% |
| No | 20% | 81% | -61% | +48% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2025 09:09PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 01, 2025 09:09PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 1% | +17% | -1% |
| No | 82% | 99% | -17% | +1% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 02, 2025 02:28AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 02, 2025 02:28AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 1% | +14% | +0% |
| No | 85% | 99% | -14% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 02, 2025 02:43AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 02, 2025 02:43AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 0% | 67% | -67% | +5% |
| 30 days | 100% | 6% | +94% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 0% | 5% | -5% | -1% |
| 91 days or more | 0% | 16% | -16% | +2% |
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 02, 2025 02:51AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 02, 2025 02:51AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 0% | 0% | +0% | -6% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 0% | 1% | -1% | -7% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 0% | 5% | -5% | -40% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 100% | 51% | +49% | +19% |
| €30 billion or more | 0% | 43% | -43% | +34% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 02, 2025 03:15AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 02, 2025 03:15AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 25% | 3% | +22% | -1% |
| Latvia | 18% | 2% | +16% | -1% |
| Lithuania | 28% | 3% | +25% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 02, 2025 03:26AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 02, 2025 03:26AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 35% | 6% | +29% | -2% |
| Armenia | 8% | 2% | +6% | -1% |
| Georgia | 15% | 3% | +12% | -2% |
| Kazakhstan | 3% | 1% | +2% | -1% |