Confirmed previous forecast
1.025562
Relative Brier Score
93
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 84 | 84 | 84 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
24%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
1%
(0%)
30 days
13%
(0%)
31-60 days
12%
(0%)
61-90 days
50%
(0%)
91 days or more
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Fading for passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/c
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-2%)
Yes
95%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Fading for time passing
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/c
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-14%)
Less than 600
0%
(-12%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
38%
(+18%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
37%
(+17%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
25%
(-9%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for ACLED data
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/c
Files