ivi1226

 First of all, in my first forecast, I stated that Putin wants to keep invading countries in Eastern Europe out of pride. This is also why I stated that Russia ambitions for invading the selected four countries extend further than NATO. It is likely that Putin wants to rebuild the old Soviet Union and stop the influence of the West. I also stated that Moldova and Georgia both have the highest probability of being invaded by Russia. This is because Moldova has territories that are aligned with Russia and Georgia has been invaded by Russia before. Also,  I recognized that Russia has previously interfere with elections in Moldova.  However, after consulting with my partner I realize that Georgia most likely has a higher probability of being invaded by Russia than Moldova. This is because they have been invaded by Russia before and they never fully left the country. After all, they still have control over Georgian territories. Therefore, they would be the easiest to invade. Also, I did not consider the amount of public discontent towards Russia in Georgia. This is most likely why Russia has been determining to spread propaganda in the country.  Although I did consider that Russia wants to have a large influence over the Black Sea.  However, it is clear that Russia wants to create a pro-Russia atmosphere in Georgia.

https://www.fpri.org/article/2025/03/russian-influence-operations-in-georgia-a-threat-to-democracy-and-regional-stability/

First of all, in my last forecast, I stated that it is highly likely that if Russia and Ukraine were to engage in a thirty-day ceasefire it will likely be broken by Russia. Also, I stated that this is because Russia has a history of violating ceasefire with Ukraine. For example, the Minks agreements were both violated by Russia. Therefore, it is possible that if Putin were to engage in a potential ceasefire with Russia it is unlikely that he will stop sending troops to Ukraine. I also stated that the West’s actions to isolate Russia and the effects of sanctions will most likely influence Russia to not honor a peace agreement. After all, sanctions have had a devastating economic impact on Russia. Moreover, I also stated that a potential ceasefire agreement will be affected by tensions between the U.S and the Ukraine. This does have potential to affect a potential rare-earth minerals deal. If Ukraine does not want to submit to the U.S demands, then then it possible that they will back out of the deal. After all, a potential deal that the Trump administration would make with Ukraine will likely not be in their best interests. If this happens then Russia will easily be able to keep sending troops to Ukraine. However, I did not consider the impact of recent events on the matter. For example, the recent partial Easter ceasefire is an example of how Putin is unwilling to compromise with Ukraine. This is because the Kremlin announce that there would be a ceasefire until midnight last Sunday. However, Zelensky stated that Russia violated the ceasefire by conducting attacks with artillery and drones. Therefore, it is clear that Putin often uses a known ceasefire for the purposes of advancement. Therefore, it is likely that if Russia and Ukraine engage in a formal peace agreement with Ukraine, Russia will probably see it as an opportunity for advancement as well.

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-violating-easter-truce-zelenskyy-says/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1drqeev36qo

First of all, it is clear that if Putin is successful with his invasion of Ukraine he will likely expand into other territories throughout Western Europe as well. Putin most likely wants to rebuild the old Soviet Union. It is also evident that Russia ambitions extend beyond deterring NATO’s influence over Eastern Europe. While it is evident that Russia does not want Ukraine to join NATO due to the fact that Putin believes that Western influences are a threat to his nation. For Russia this is a question of pride. Russia wants to conquer the territories because they believe Western influences in the area are a threat to their way of life. Russia sees it as necessary to conquer territories that they view as theirs and that they lost when the Soviet Union collapsed. Invading Ukraine is likely the first step in Russia's plans to increase their influence all around the world. For example, Russia has been attempting to build relationship with China, the rest of the BRICS countries, and many countries in the Global South. Therefore, Russia plans to conquer new territories and establish new allyships in order to have an increasing amount of influence over the rest of the world.

When it comes to which nation will become the next Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have a higher probability of being invaded compared to countries like Armenia and Kazakhstan. When it comes to Moldova Russia is determined to stop the spread of Western influences in the country. For example, Russia has interfered in their elections and has interfered with Moldova's chances of joining the EU. However, it is more likely that Russia will invade Moldova before they invade the other countries. Moldova is home to a key breakaway territory that Russia has the ability to occupy. Transnistria is a region that is generally aligned with Russian interests. In fact, Russia has engaged in efforts to remove ant-Russian opposition leaders in the region. Therefore, Russia already has a large influence over this region that is more aligned with Russia than it is with Moldova. Also, if Russia successfully invades all of Ukraine then they will gain control of the Black Sea as well. If Russia gains control of the Black Sea then they will also gain access to the city of Odessa. If they gain access to the Black Sea then they can easily invade Moldova. Russia also has a high probability of invading Georgia as they did in 2008, and they still retain a large amount of control over certain Georgian territories. For example, Russia still has control over the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

When it comes to Armenia the problem becomes more complicated. Armenia has had to depend on Russia in the past in order to receive protection against its enemy Azerbaijan. However, Armenia has been working on distancing themselves from Russia and align themselves with the EU. Also, it is possible that Armenia and Azerbaijan could reached a peace treaty. If this happens then Russia’s influence on the country will be greatly reduced. If Armenia attempts to completely separate from Russia, then they will likely invade the country out of retaliation. In the case of Kazakhstan, the country, they have historically been an ally to Russia, but they have not supported Russia actions in Ukraine. Also, they have an ethnic Russian population that lives in the country. Therefore, Putin might see it as necessary to invade Kazakhstan in order to deter the spread of Western influence in the region. It might be more difficult for Russia to invade Kazakhstan because of the large influence that China has over the region. However, it is far more likely that Russia will invade Moldova before April 1st 2027.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-war-in-ukraine-changed-russias-global-standing/

https://hir.harvard.edu/transnistria-russias-next-battlefront/

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/07/playing-with-fire-georgias-cautious-rapprochement-with-russia?lang=en

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/07/armenia-navigates-a-path-away-from-russia?lang=en

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-ukraine-invasion-is-eroding-kremlin-influence-in-kazakhstan/

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/russias-influence-kazakhstan-increasing-despite-war-ukraine

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/09/kazakhstan-china-soft-power-adaptation?lang=en

While it is possible that a potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine could be reached, it is highly unlikely that it will last more than thirty days. This is why if a thirty day ceasefire agreement was made it will likely be violated before the thirty day mark. In fact, if a potential ceasefire was violated it will likely be violated by Russia. Russia has violated agreements with Ukraine in the past, therefore, it is possible that they will violate a potential ceasefire agreement in the future. It is important to acknowledge that Russia has broken 25 peace agreements with Ukraine since 2014.  For example,  Russia and Ukraine have perviously engaged in the Minsk agreements which Ukraine states that Russia has broken both agreements. Minsk I was agreed to in 2014, but failed immediately. In fact, it was broken almost immediately after it was signed. Minsk II was also agreed upon but it failed as well. Ukraine states that even though Russia had agreed to a peace agreement that did not stop them from sending troops or engaging in violence. This could indicate that if Putin was to engage in a potential ceasefire deal with Ukraine it is likely that he will not stop sending troops to Ukraine. 

Moreover, even if a potential ceasefire deal was made it is likely that Russia will break the deal due to ongoing tensions with the U.S. Even though the Trump administration has attempted to negotiate with Russia there is still a certain amount of conflict between the U.S and  Russia.  It is clear that Russia has a growing resentment for the U.S and the rest of the West.  Even though the Biden and Trump administration have tried to negotiate with Russia, the actions of the collective West has isolated Russia from the West.  For example, Russia was forced to leave the G8 and since the start of the war the EU and the U.S have been imposing sanctions on Russia.  This has had a devastating impact on the Russian economy and has isolated Russia from the West.  Even though, Trump has been trying to negotiate with Russia, it is possible that if a potential ceasefire agreement is created it will likely be broken early by Russia because unless sanctions are lifted on the country they will likely keep troops in Ukraine. Over the last two decades Russia has become more isolated from the West which would make it difficult for the U.S to persuade Russia to engage in a long-term ceasefire.

Also, another reason a potential ceasefire agreement will be broken early  is the fact that U.S-Ukraine relations have been decreasing recently. It is clear that tensions have been increasing between the U.S and Ukraine. Therefore, even though the Trump administration has been attempting to negotiate a potential rare-earth minerals deal with Ukraine it is likely that Ukraine will back out of a potential deal. This is because the first time that the Trump administration has attempted to negotiate a potential rare-earth minerals deal with Ukraine they had a long list of demands. For example, they demanded that Ukraine give the U.S their minerals in order to repay them for the 500 billion dollars in military aid that the U.S has previously provided to Ukraine. Also, the Trump administration has stated security guarantees for Ukraine are not guaranteed. Therefore, if a new deal was made it is unlikely that the Ukraine will not continue adhering to the deal since it is clearly in the best interests of the U.S and not the Ukraine.  It is unlikely that Ukraine would continue to engage in a deal where they are going to lose large amounts of money, especially since they have already obtained significant loses during the war. If Ukraine decides to back out of this deal then they will be left vulnerable which means that Russia could easily attack them again. Also, Russia or Ukraine could easily attack each other's essential energy infrastructures and if this happens during  a ceasefire then either party will likely violate the potential ceasefire.  This is possible because Russia and Ukraine have previously negotiated on not attacking each others essential infrastructure, however, this deal was ultimately violated as well. 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-war-in-ukraine-changed-russias-global-standing/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/20/spring-brings-more-russian-advances-as-putin-rejects-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/03/20/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-breaches-trump/

https://www.csis.org/analysis/breaking-down-us-ukraine-minerals-deal

For this revision, I decided to structure my base rate at 45% for the probability that a ceasefire will last than 30 days. I originally set the distribution at 50% but then realize that I was being overly confident that a potential ceasefire will last less than thirty days.  Also, for my original forecast, I stated that Russia has perviously violated 25 peace agreements with Ukraine and this is evidence that they will likely repeat their actions by violating a potential ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. However, after discussing with my partner I realized that I was being overconfident in this assertion.  The fact that Russia has violated several ceasefire agreements in the past could indicate that they will not honor any agreement in the future but this not certain. Also, after talking to my partner I realize that I need to develop my outside view even more. For example, it is also important to note that when tensions were escalating between Russia and Ukraine the first Minsk agreement was signed and it was immediately violated in 2014. Russia and Ukraine both stated that this was due to separatist allies on both sides. Having a deeper analysis on the history of ceasefires between the two countries would have strengthen by outside view.  Also, in the forecast I talked about how Putin's conditions for engaging in a ceasefire are that Ukraine is not able to defend itself and that it does not attempt to become a NATO member.  I also stated how this would make it easier for Putin to invade Ukraine once again. However, I did not considered how there were failed peace talks in the past that talked about the concept of the demilitarization of Ukraine. This could be seen as evidence that it is possible that Putin will not agree to a potential ceasefire agreement until Ukraine agrees to become completely demilitarized. Lastly,  in my original forecast, I talked about how the U.S and Ukraine could engage in a potential rare-earth minerals deal that would guarantee security measures for Ukraine. However, I did not consider the fact that Trump has already offered a deal to Ukraine that Ukraine declined because they believed that it would take advantage of their economic resources. This demonstrates that if a potential rare-earth minerals deal were made it would likely be broken and Ukraine would be put in a vulnerable position again.  Examining past events would have definitely helped me to develop a more accurate conclusion. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/03/20/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-breaches-trump/

After talking with my partner I realize that I was not developing my outside view enough. For example, I did mentioned how there has been a surplus of disinformation from Russian sources in Germany. I also stated that there was around 281 cases of disinformation in general. This is why I stated that that Germany is becoming the target of Russian disinformation. However, I did not expand my outside view enough. For example,  I did not consider how the EU has been encouraging efforts to counter the spread of Russian disinformation. In fact, the EU has encourage countries to implement sanctions on Russia and enforce the Digital Services Act, which would allow them to monitor and manage the threat of Russian interference and manipulation. I did not consider this when I was considering the EU's capability to manage the threat of Russian disinformation in comparison to the US.  For example,  I stated that the EU has stated that largely failed to counter the spread of Russian influence in elections while the Justice Department in the U.S has been working to reduce the rate of Russian propaganda during elections. However, since the EU has been implementing measures to combat the spread of Russian propaganda  they could successfully counter the spread of Russian inference today. This means that Germany could successfully implement measures to combat Russian interference in elections. This will certainly impact the amount of Russian disinformation that they find this year.  Also, I stated that the current political climate in Germany has made it easier for the Kremlin to engage in disinformation campaigns. For example, Russia has already engaged in efforts such as operation Doppelgänger in order to influence the outcome of the elections in Germany.  However, I could have mentioned how this operation is still ongoing and how it will influence the amount of Russian disinformation campaigns this year.  Therefore, it is clear that the EU and, more specifically Germany, are conducting efforts to lower the spread of Russian disinformation while Russia is still conducting operation Doppelgänger. This is why I adjusted my base rate to 40%. There will likely be more disinformations cases  year in comparison to last year but Germany is implementing to combat the spread of disinformation, especially when it comes to elections.   Therefore, this is why I adjusted my base rate to 40% for between 70-79 cases. 

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20250116IPR26330/meps-condemn-russia-s-use-of-disinformation-to-justify-its-war-in-ukraine

After the consultation with my partner I realize that I needed to adjust my base rate. I adjusted the base rate for Georgia and for Moldova to 8% and 10% because it is far more likely that Russia will invade these countries in comparison to Armenia and Kazakhstan which is why I listed them as having a 3% and 2% probability of being invaded. This is because, as I have stated in my previous forecast,  Putin is looking to expand to other regions in order to expand Russia's  political, economic, and military influence. Out of all the regions, Georgia probably has the highest chance of being invaded by Russia because of the fact that they have already invaded the country before.  Moldova also has a higher probability of being invaded because Russia has attempted to undermine the Moldovan government and they have a key region that is aligned with Russian interests.  This means that they have a higher probability of being Russia next target in comparison to Armenia and Kazakhstan.  I also stated that if Russia was going to invade any of these countries it will likely  be due to the same reasons they invaded Ukraine which was security concerns and the growing influence of the West in the region.  However, after talking to my partner I realize that I was making an assumption that Russia will invade any of these countries for the same reasons that it invaded Ukraine. Therefore, it could be  possible that Russia will invade high-risk  countries like Moldova and Georgia  for entirely different reasons that it invaded Ukraine.  

It is clear that Putin is looking to expand throughout Eastern Europe.  Russian invasion of Ukraine is proof that Russia is looking to counter western influence in the region. However, the increasing influence of NATO might not be the only reason for why Putin is looking to expand to other regions. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has been determined to broaden its political, economic, and military influence. It is clear that the way that Russia intends to do this is by conquering new territories. This is most likely why they have been invading countries like Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria. Russia has seen how organizations like NATO and the U.S alone have a large influence over Europe. This could be seen as a large threat to Russia as they might believe that the West is attempting to conquer former Russian territories. This is likely a question of security for Russia. Therefore, Russia invasion of Ukraine was most likely due to security concerns not just NATO expansion. It is also likely that Russia will invade other countries in the region for the same reason.

Given Russia's history of aggression, Georgia is a likely target for a future invasion, as it has already experienced Russian military intervention in the past. In fact, this invasion in 2008 resulted in the U.S realizing that they are in a post-cold war era and that they need to begin negotiating with Russia.  Therefore, Russia could easily invade Georgia again just as they invaded Ukraine twice.  Moreover, there is a possibility that Russia could invade Moldova as well because they always have had a large influence on the country. For example, Russia has been attempting to undermine the Moldovan government in order to gain access to territories that Russia sees as theirs. Russia has been accused of attempting to interfere in elections and accusing the president of Moldova of conducting military operations in Transnistria, a territory that is aligned with Russia. Also, out of all of the four countries, Moldova most likely has the best chance of joining the EU. If this happens then Russia will most likely see this as a potential security concern for the country and decide to invade Transnistria. 

When it comes to Armenia and Kazakhstan, it is highly unlikely that Russia will invade these countries. However, there are reasons why they might invade these countries. For example,  it has been alleged that Russia staged a coup in Armenia last year.  Also, ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 there have been growing tensions between Armenia and Russia. This is because Armenia has been attempting to build relationships with the U.S and the West, while Russia has been building relationships with Armenia's enemy Azerbaijan. Therefore, Russia might invade Armenia out of retaliation. Lastly,  even though Russia will most likely not invade Kazakhstan due to the fact that there is an ethnic Russian population in the country. Russia might be inclined to invade the country due to the fact that there is a significant portion of the population that is ethnically aligned with Russia.

Therefore, Georgia will most likely be the country that Russia invades before April 1st,  2027. However, there is also a chance that they will invade Moldova, Armenia, and/or Kazakhstan.

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/02/putins-six-year-manifesto-sets-sights-beyond-ukraine?lang=en

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-real-reason-russia-invaded-ukraine-hint-its-not-nato-expansion/

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-2008-russo-georgian-war-putins-green-light/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/25/is-russia-planning-a-false-flag-attack-on-moldova

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-stage-violent-coup-armenia-investigation-allegiation/

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/russias-influence-kazakhstan-increasing-despite-war-ukraine

https://abn.org.ua/en/analysis/when-will-russia-attack-kazakhstan/