Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2025 06:15AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 05, 2025 06:15AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 20% | +15% | +1% |
| No | 65% | 80% | -15% | -1% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2025 06:15AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 05, 2025 06:15AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 10:12PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 10:12PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 11:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 11:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 99% | -1% | +0% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 11:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 11:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $350 million | 6% | 28% | -22% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million | 47% | 45% | +2% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million | 35% | 22% | +13% | -2% |
| More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million | 10% | 5% | +5% | -1% |
| More than or equal to $800 million | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |