My partner re-highlighted that the likelihood of Russia going to war with any other country is low. Although we had the same rankings, he had lower percentages than me, which made me reconsider my percentages as well. I am reducing from 10% Moldova to 8% and reducing it for other countries as well, to make it closer to scale.
0.014256
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Apr 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-2%)
Moldova
3%
(-1%)
Armenia
5%
(-1%)
Georgia
2%
(-1%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The probability of Russia invading Moldova may be higher than what I perceive. Russia could facilitate its invasion into the country utilizing Moldova's public, or utilize other means, facilitating its invasion into the country. Additionally, Russia resources may be higher than we percieve increasing its likelihood of invading all the listed countries.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
18%
(+11%)
30 days
15%
(-11%)
31-60 days
10%
(-2%)
61-90 days
5%
(+2%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
I reset my forecast. Russia continues to show hostility towards a peace agreement, for the following reasons:
- In less than 30 days, the likelihood of a peace agreement being broken will be at its highest, especially if Russia agrees to a deal which does not fully allign to its interests. So far, no deal has.
- On Day 30, if Russia has not reached all of its concessions, but somehow how has managed to stay within a peace agreement so far, the likelihood of a ceasefire occuring on this day will be extremely high, especially considering that the ceasefire will only begin to count after 30 days.
- As time passes, I think the likelihood of a peace deal breaking will decrease.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Russia's newest eagereness to sit with Ukraine and establish a peace deal, may also increase the country's likelihood of settling for a peacedeal that could be successful and not be broken within the first few weeks.
-Crowd forecast indicates a highlikelihood of peace deal beign broken past 91 days. I don't agree with this, then again, Russia is unpredictable and potentially break its agreement past 91 days for a variety of reasons; i.e. resting temporarily its troops to attack harder.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(-1%)
Armenia
6%
(-1%)
Georgia
3%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
I am slightly reducing my forecast by a percentage for Russia's invasion of Armenia and Georgia, and keeping Moldova as the most likely country to be invaded because of the following points:
-Moldova currently faces the largest security threat to Russia. Moldova's president recently delivered a speech to the parliament, highlighting this insecurity, claiming Russia is betting on influencing the parliamentary elections to occur in September 2025.
- Russia has been increasing its positive relations with Armenia and Khazakstan.
-Georgia's pro-Russian ruling party currently makes it unlikely for a Russia invasion to happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Elections in Moldova and Georgia (2026) may increase the likelihood of Russia invasion, if a party un-alligned with Russia interests is elected. If Moldova's election results in September, fall in favor for Russia, there may be a lower likelihood of invasion by the former Soviet government.
-Armenia and Khazakstan relations may also decrease, increasing their likelihood for invasion.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
7%
(+2%)
30 days
26%
(0%)
31-60 days
12%
(0%)
61-90 days
3%
(-2%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Following the conversation I had with my partner, I am increasing the likelihood of a ceasefire breaking on 30 days and slightly decreasing it for 91 days and more. However, I am not adding it up to the same likelihood as less than 30 days, as I previously had. Considering that 30 days is symbolic in this peace treaty.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With my partner we agreed that there was very high likelihood of the ceasefire breaking within less than 30 days because of high tensions and other issues. We also highlighted the fact that if Russia was to accept a peace deal it would only do so if it was in the country's best interest to end war, as a result, if a peace deal was to come into effect and survive past the first months, we expected that past 91 days there was less likelihood of it breaking. However, we may be wrong because Russia may settle for a peace treaty only to recharge and recuperate to continue fighting, or on the long run rethink the peace treaty agreement and even 3 months later violate it for a number of other reasons.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
5%
(0%)
Armenia
7%
(0%)
Georgia
3%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
In general, I am choosing not to change my forecast. My partner experessed a higher likelihood of invasion of Georgia than Moldova, when we went over the facts together however, we had very similar reasonings. My partner highlighted the fact that Georgia has previously been invaded makes it more likely than Moldova. However, Russia has not made threats nor diplomatically shown any actions that would initiate targets towards Georgia. On the other hand, growing diplomatic tensions between Moldova and Russia has increased in the past few weeks, as I highligted in my previous forecasts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There may be some fraction on the ground that I have not accounted for, or other conflict that is not necessarily picked up in media between Russia and one of these countries making it more likely to invade tthe other. .
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(+13%)
Less than or equal to 59
32%
(+12%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
26%
(-4%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
20%
(-21%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
With my partner, we went ahead and revisted the website and count of disiformation campaigns. In April 2022, disinformation campaigns were at 62 cases, due to this I am lowering my forecast percentage of expectation of it landing between 80-89 or 70-79. On the other hand, I am increasing my forecast for the number of disinformation counts increasing to 60-69 and less than 59.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Disinformation counts might end up being significantly higher than I predict. On April 11th, Germany announced supporting Ukraine by sending militarily aid. This annoucement was made by Friedrich Merz, member of the CDU. Accoding to Germany, Russian disinformation campaigns have strategically been targetted to discredit this party. With this annoucement, there is a likelihood of seeing an increase in disinformation campaigns, and as a result increasing significantly the disinformation campaign.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
5%
(0%)
Armenia
7%
(0%)
Georgia
3%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
In the past two week there seems to not have been a progress in increase agression or tensions between Moldova and Russia, although Russia had expelled Moldovian diplomats, there seem to not have been any hostile actions between the two that gained international level attentions, which is leading me to decrease my forecast of risk of invasion to Moldova. Currently, Russian resources are focused on Ukraine, and some analysits predict that the invasion of neighboring countries, like Moldova will happen within 5 years, as it continues to be a long-term threat to Moldova.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-war-threat-europe-within-5-years-danish-intelligence-ddis-warns//
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-poses-long-term-threats-moldova%E2%80%99s-european-integration-beyond-october-elections
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-order-slashes-kazakh-oil-export-capacity-amid-opec-row-2025-04-01/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't predict that any major indicator will lead to an invasion of any countries by 2027. However, most recently there has been an issue on Kazakhastan energy production, that led to the shut down of two oil production, this is not an indicator I would assume that would lead to hgiher conflict between the countries, however, I may be wrong.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-order-slashes-kazakh-oil-export-capacity-amid-opec-row-2025-04-01/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-9%)
Less than or equal to 59
20%
(-7%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
(-15%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
41%
(+31%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
I have realized I have the most cognitive bias towards this question. Having previously done research on Russian disinformation campaigns, while I was researching for the past forecasting round, I was unintentionally gravitating towards articles that confirmed what I knew or assumed what was going on, which influenced my forecast. However, yesterday, I took the time to take a step back and simply read on the relationship between Germany and Russia, and the role of disinformation campaigns. This week disinformation countries are up to 42, in February 2024, Germany held elections, which is one of the stimuli for disinformation campaigns from Russia. Although my second forecast predicted a likelihood of predictions slightly decreasing with time, due to the fact that they were not at 50%, with the most recent move Germany is doing to support Ukraine militarily, I expect the number of disinformation campaigns to continue increasing and get a momentum of doubling or reaching close to doubling.
- https://www.dw.com/en/germany-announces-fresh-military-aid-to-ukraine/live-72212628
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's the possibility that Germany's supporting Ukraine may not influence the rate of disinformation campaigns about Russia coming into Germany. Additionally, with the government of Germany's awareness of this issue, there may be policies that take place that help strategicially respond to this problem, reducing engagement of Germans with disinformation campaigns, leading to a decrease in disinformation on behalf of Russia actors.
https://www.dw.com/en/russian-disinformation-is-growing-in-germany/a-70506294
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Russia having previously violated ceasefires past 91 days, makes it likely to break the ceasefire agreement past 91 days, hence why I slightly increased the probability for 91 days or more. However, my discussion with my partner, in parallele with the class discussion on the Easter ceasefire, influences me to keep my percentages for less than 30 days, 30 days, and 31-60 days.
Why might you be wrong?
The terms of agreement remain unknown so depending on what the terms are, and the motives of Russia, there may be a strong likelihood of it breaking beyond 31 days or 61 days or 91.