Russia is not interested in ceasefire, it's currently winning on the battlefield. Since 2014, when the conflict in Donbass started, Russia already broke 25 ceasefires. Ukraine declared that they will fight 'till the last Ukranian'. Both countries will break the ceasefire and blame each other.
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Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
Less than 30 days
34%
30 days
0%
31-60 days
0%
61-90 days
0%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Only if US will enforce the ceasfire by threatening both sides with very serious measures.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
New distilled AI models like DeepSeek, those that don't depend on chips and are cheaper to train, will continue to cause Nvidia stocks to drop in price.
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Why might you be wrong?
New regulations on AI models or new significant achievements that require heavy usage of Nvidia chips.
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Why do you think you're right?
All the efforts that Trump puts into making peace bring no result - and it seems that Russia does not want to use this chance.
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe new sanctions will change the balance?