joyful-galaxy-51

Base rate:

How often has Russia invaded or militarily intervened in neighboring countries since 1991? Russia has invaded or militarily intervened in neighboring countries approximately 6–7 times, Direct invasions: ~3 (Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine 2022) Covert/separatist support: ~2 (Transnistria, Donbas) Peacekeeping/“invited” interventions: ~2 (Kazakhstan, Armenia) So, base rate of military intervention in neighbors since 1991 = ~6–7 instances in ~33 years, or about 1 intervention every 5 years on average. How many times have countries with Russian troops already stationed on their soil (e.g. Transnistria, South Ossetia) been subject to full-scale invasions? Two times. Are any of these NATO countries ? Armenia and Georgia are considered part of NATO's "Partnership for Peace" (PfP) program, but they are not full NATO members. Inside view: how stable are the political and security environments in Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, and how might this stability (or lack thereof) affect the likelihood of Russian military intervention? Moldova: pro-European government—which officially applied for EU membership in March A move against Transdniestria is only possible if the Russians were to manage to capture Odessa—hardly likely when the Russian army can barely advance in eastern Ukraine. the PAS government has had to contend with successive crises – including energy and refugee crises – both caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine the pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), affiliated with President Maia Sandu, won the early parliamentary elections, capturing almost 53% of the vote. This majority secured PAS 63 out of 101 seats in Moldova’s parliament. The PAS’s victory marked a significant turning point and monumental achievement in Moldovan politics. It was the first time since the 1990s that a grassroots party, untangled from oligarchic circles and untouched by corruption, acquired complete control over the country. growthArmenia: The president suddenly resigned in January 2022, and a new one was elected in March. Azerbaijan’s military attack in September 2022, together with the seizure of portions of Armenian border regions, The economy has experienced strong momentum, driven by robust consumption and a surge in incomes, capital, business and labor. The immigration of Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian IT experts has proved to be a significant asset for the country, contributing to substantial economic growth https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/ARM Georgia: Georgia’s political situation is deeply entangled in the broader geopolitics of the region, significantly influenced by Russian hybrid war in the region and the ongoing war in Ukraine. This war not only challenges democratic norms but also contributes to a rising tide of autocratic governance across Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. The ruling Georgian Dream party, widely seen as aligned with Kremlin interests and informally led by Bidzina Ivanishvilli, is expected to override this decision due to the majority in the parliament. This contentious bill places restrictions on organisations receiving overseas funding, which critics argue will stifle civil society and democratic engagement in Georgia Justice Kazakhstan: . As a result, in a significant departure from the Nazarbayev era, Tokayev announced the establishment of a New Kazakhstan based on principles of equal opportunity, political liberalization, economic diversification and social justice https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/KAZ Do any of these countries have military alliances with Russia? 

Armenia and Kazakhstan both have military alliances with  Russia https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2024/03/04/the-collective-security-treaty-organization-a-lifeless-shambling-alliance/

Confidence level: 80% 

Armenia has a 60 % chance of being invaded. It is a 60% chance as there is some evidence indicating they might be ripe for invasion due to having some factors that would benefit Russia and other factors that would not. Factors that would benefit invasion are its military alliance with Russia, unstable government, active military conflict with Azerbaijan, and Russia typically invading countries within 5 years. The factor that would go against Armenia being invaded would be the fact that it is involved with NATOs partnership for peace program which might deter Russia from invading. Georgia has a 20% chance of invasion as Russia had unsuccessfully tried to invade it before and it is also apart of NATOs partnership for peace program. However it still has a slight chance of invasion due to the party that is strongly aligned with the kremlin gaining popularity in the region and containing general political instability. Moldova has a 40% chance of invasion due to not being a nato member, having a region that sees itself as Russian, and minor economic problems. How ever it still has a chance to avoid invasion due to having a leader that got elected that is pro eu. Kazakhstan has a 50/50 chance of invasion as they have a stable government that is more pro western however they are not apart of nato and they have military alliances with Russia. 

Base rate: What has been the annual number of German-language pro-Kremlin disinformation cases over the past 4 years?

EUvsDisinfo has recorded the following number of German-language disinformation cases from October 1st through September 30th of each of the following years:

* Oct 2023 to Sept 2024: 67 

* Oct 2022 to Sept 2023: 14 

* Oct 2021 to Sept 2022: 82

* Oct 2020 to Sept 2021: 78

How many cases have there been of pro kremlin disinformation in eu overall? 

Since February 2022, EU vs Disinformation has tracked more than 237 disinformation cases relating to Ukraine, and more than 5,500 total disinformation cases about Ukraine since its establishment in 2015 (out of more than 13,000 total examples of pro-Kremlin disinformation).2022-2023 Germany and Slovakia, we found 709 and 592 cases of disinformation respectively. Is there an overall increase of pro kremlin disinformation campaigns this year? Faced with international sanctions, military setbacks, significant losses, and growing isolation, Russia has increasingly ramped up its disinformation operations, political subversion, and the manipulation of public opinion in the West — echoing the KGB’s tactics of psychological warfare and subversionWe're Winning, Say Russia's Disinformation Campaigns - CEPA Is there an incentive this year to ramp up disinformation in Germany? 

There is a rise in populist parties in Germany gaining popularity these parties often favor Russia

Inside view: Are pro-Kremlin media outlets increasing or decreasing their efforts in German-language information operations?

ProKremlin media outlets have been increasing there efforts in German language information operations since the invasion of Ukraine https://www.isdglobal.org/digital_dispatches/pro-kremlin-campaigns-intensify-in-germany-ahead-of-european-elections/?utm_source=chatgpt.comThe Kremlin has found ways to increase ads through loopholes The operation, later dubbed Doppelganger, has continued to operate across social media platforms. The actors behind it have since adopted new methods to stay on popular social media platforms, such as altered spelling or a sophisticated system of redirections.  Are there any new German-language channels, websites, or influencers amplifying pro-Kremlin narratives?

Naomi Seibt got noticed by Elon musk on Twitter and received support from him. She is an influencer from Germany’s far right party known for promoting pro kremlin narratives. TelegramThere has been a massive increase of pro Russia propaganda on Telegram Has Germany put in any stricter regulations to combat pro kremlin websites Launched in mid-2024, ZEAM is a collaborative initiative involving the Federal Ministry of the Interior, the Federal Foreign Office, the Federal Ministry of Justice, and the Federal Press Office. Its primary mission is to protect Germany's democratic processes from covert foreign influence, with a focus on identifying and countering disinformation campaigns. Following the EU's directives, Germany has blocked access to Russian state-owned media outlets such as RT and Sputnik. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pro-kremlin-activists-say-theyre-barred-entering-germany-2024-10-09/Recently two pro Russian activist have been deported. 

Confidence Level: 70%

I would say that my prediction based on the information I gathered for the base rate and the inside view that the amount of German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will most likely be between 80 to 89 cases. This is because there is evidence that there is a significant increase in the amount of Russian propaganda in Germany around this election. This is in part due to a rise in populist parties in Germany during this election. The Russians see an opportunity as well with growing disinterest in the war in Ukraine to ramp up propaganda thus making me conclude that there will be a significant increase in German language Russian propaganda. However I do not think it will surpass 89 cases because there are new regulations that the government of Germany has put in place to ban access to Russian media outlets 

Because Latvia is bordering Russia and Belarus which is an ally of Russia. Estonia is too close to Finland a fellow NATO member, and Lithuania is also bordering Poland a fellow nato member. All three countries are nato member Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia and to date Russia has not invaded a NATO member making the probability less than 50% with Lativa containing the highest level of probability in being invaded