Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 04, 2025 03:45AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Apr 04, 2025 03:45AM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 0% | 67% | -67% | +12% |
| 30 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -3% |
| 61-90 days | 100% | 5% | +95% | -2% |
| 91 days or more | 0% | 16% | -16% | -4% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 05, 2025 11:12PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Apr 05, 2025 11:12PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 72% | 6% | +66% | -2% |
| Armenia | 18% | 2% | +16% | +0% |
| Georgia | 33% | 3% | +30% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 18% | 1% | +17% | +0% |