Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2025 09:19PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 22, 2025 09:19PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 2% | 0% | +2% | -5% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 4% | 2% | +2% | -8% |
| Not before 2026 | 94% | 98% | -4% | +15% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2025 09:21PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 22, 2025 09:21PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 0% | 6% | -6% | -2% |
| Armenia | 10% | 2% | +8% | -1% |
| Georgia | 5% | 3% | +2% | -2% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 22, 2025 09:21PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 22, 2025 09:21PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 70% | 68% | +2% | +6% |
| 30 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 4% | 6% | -2% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 1% | 5% | -4% | -1% |
| 91 days or more | 25% | 16% | +9% | +1% |