No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Why do you think you're right?
While Nvidia has become a foundational component of the large language model arms race, and it is absolutely possible it might become the world's most valuable company by market capitalisation, this is far from certain.
There is not a linear or predictable relationship between activity, proposition and value. Apple has created a perfect virtuous circle of long-term recurring revenue business model (starting with iTunes) and Microsoft has successfully navigated from a protected market which yielded a vast install base, to a recurring revenue model leveraging that base. While Nvidia has built an ecosystem in the Market where they have a moat and are hard to copy or follow, their position is not impregnable. The barriers to entry are lower than for Microsoft or Apple.
The markets as a whole are unstable in response to failures of US policy planning and leadership. This may influence market caps.
Why might you be wrong?
My understanding of the specifics of Nvidia's parallel processing platform ecosystem might mean I have assessed Nvidia's 'moat' as being too vulnerable.
A Porter's five forces synthesis of the GPU market returns the following:
Nvidia has a strong defensible position, but the biggest threats are:
Startups face huge barriers to entry unless focused on narrow, innovative niches (e.g., inference-specific chips).
Legacy competitors (AMD, Intel) need differentiation beyond price — e.g., power efficiency, AI stack compatibility.
I don't have a sufficient understanding of the details to clearly say this is likely or unlikely.