Just based on others’ forecast - moving towards consensus
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-7%)
Yes
95%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have not done any new research.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I appreciate that China is reputedly helping Pakistan, but I think they are likely to back off direct participation in an armed conflict because of risk aversion and quasi-isolationism. But I am not an expert for sure.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Well, I have not given the issue much thought, and I am not an expert in Chinese or Indian foreign policy. So those are two problems.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There are numerous differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill, with various Republican factions having conflicting interests and concerns. It looks to be. Very challenging process to achieve sufficient consensus in both Congress and the Senate in such a short period of time.
Why might you be wrong?
As a Canadian I do not understand the US legislative process as well as US observers. I am not sure of the significance of the deadline.