msr415

According to the CDC, "as of May 29, 2025, a total of 1,088 confirmed measles cases were reported" so far in 2025. This represents the number of cases over ~5 full months. The question is asking for 9 full months.  If the current rate stays the same until 9/30/25, there will be ~1958 total cases reported since 1/1/25 (1,088*(9/5)). The US government does not seem to be in the condition to curb this outbreak drastically anytime soon, given widespread vaccine mistrust spread by the head of HHS, for example, so I think the rate will likely stay the same for the next few months. 

This forecast heavily uses the inside view because the recently counts of measles in 2025 so far are unprecedented. From the outside view, the was only one year in recent decades (since 1992) that has had more than 1000 cases. There were 1274 cases in 2019, and these mostly tied to breakouts among certain unvaccinated populations in NYC. This outbreak period (~10+ cases/week) lasted almost a year, from October 2018 to August 2019. If the current 2025 outbreak lasts just as long (it started around 1/1/25 including weeks with less than 10 cases, so a conservative estimate), the total number of cases by 9/30/25 will be higher than 1800 cases so far in 2025.