RAND Forecasting Initiative

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New Prediction

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Nico made their 1st forecast (view all):

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This forecast expired on May 29, 2025 10:10PM

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

70%

Yes

Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025

30%

Apr 29, 2025 to Oct 29, 2025

Why do you think you're right?

North Korea is likely to conduct a nuclear test within the next six months due to a combination of military buildup, political timing, and renewed site activity. With past nuclear tests and enough material for dozens more weapons, North Korea has both the capability and precedent. Recent missile tests and intelligence reports suggest a seventh test may follow the U.S. presidential election.

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Why might you be wrong?

There’s also a chance North Korea may not conduct a nuclear test in the next six months due to several restraining factors. International pressure, particularly from China and Russia despite their closer ties, could discourage a test that risks regional instability. Additionally, the economic cost of further sanctions might outweigh the benefits of testing.