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While baseline for FY25 (as provided above and on CBP page) seems to be above 50K, it decreased from the April peak. There is not clear seasonal effect over the past few years that would lead to an expectation of a higher July seizure weight relative to spring & June. So, I would say baseline expectation would be below 50K.  And the build up of law enforcement & defense activities at the border does have some deterrent effect on illicit flows of everything. As does the pressure on the Mexican government to crack down on fentanyl & other drug flows on their side of the border (& on Canadian gov't). The reason I nonetheless put a non-trivial probability for >50K in July is because: the fortification of the border is most consequential for flows of people & drugs between ports of entry.  Not all that much has changed in terms of enforcement at ports of entry. And most of the volume of drugs seized is at ports (by OFO, seen on the CBP stats page). Thus, it seems reasonable to me to think that to the extent any drug flows were squeezed out of between-ports crossings by the enforcement build-up, these may end up going to the ports. That combined with trend that is pretty close to 50K makes me think it's not all that unlikely an event.  

As per our group discussion, virtually any way to calculate a base rate of lethal confrontation suggests a small percentage likelihood at any given time.  The overall Sino-Indian relationship appears to have been on a positive trajectory since the 2020 clashes. They had just reached a border agreement in October 2024. India in particular seems to have much incentives to avoid clashes, given its economic dependence on China and relative military weakness. All things considered, I would say there are few factors that might contribute to lethal confrontations as a result of intentional actions on either are not there. And the timeline we have here is just a few months out, and things are less likely to shift dramatically within a short period of time.