AMF

As others have pointed out, it's already beat Microsoft once today. They're neck and neck as of this writing, so I'm gonna toss the coin and say "send it"

The current regime has demonstrated a willingness to crack-down severely on its opponents and little interest in even the pretense of democracy. They're already something of an international pariah, and the world's attention is mostly elsewhere. The only reason to bother with holding an election would be because they thought it would legitimize their rule; given that many of the major resistance groups oppose the planned elections, sometimes violently (https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/b175-road-nowhere-myanmar-regimes-stage-managed-elections) this seems unlikely

Updating based off the fluctuations over the past several weeks. Think I significantly underestimated the volatility of the market, and probably overestimated just how much of NVIDIA's value was tied to export-restricted hardware manufacturing vs other services and workarounds. Nonetheless, stubbornness (I suppose) is causing me to drag behind consensus just a little here...

TestOn 31 Mar 2025, Will NVIDIA be the most valuable by market cap?

If you compare the top 3 companies by market capitalization – Microsoft, Apple, and NVIDIA – over time, you can see that NVIDIA’s growth has been far more volatile. The surge in 2024 was because of the AI Boom. MS and Apple have other, more stable sources of revenue. NVIDIA has lost ground in the AI sector partially because of tariffs – they rely on fabless production – partially because of export controls – no one, probably not even the president, knows exactly what the new export controls will look like – and partially because they now have rivals in that space like Deep Seek. Increasingly, states are starting to treat AI as a matter of national security, which means they’ll want their, own domestic hardware producers. In the near future, NVIDIA is unlikely to enjoy that kind of perfect storm again. 2%

Most likely contra-indicators – a sudden reduction in export controls, sudden release of a new product or emergence of a new use case for AI for which they’re uniquely suited to supply chips.