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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Why do you think you're right?
Using the slide deck from the training, there has been 1 lethal clash in the past 12 years, indicating a probability of about 8% for a given year. Given that there is only a three month time span this event can happen (rather than a one-year span) I lowered the probability, although not proportionally given that the last conflict appeared to happen in the summer months.
Why might you be wrong?
My forecast is primarily based on an outside view as I don't have any subject matter knowledge of this conflict.