Forecasted Questions
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027 | Mar 1, 2026 | 6% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 95% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027 | Mar 1, 2026 | 94% | +1% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 02:31PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 02:31PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 19% | +16% | -5% |
| No | 65% | 81% | -16% | +5% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 03, 2025 10:21PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 03, 2025 10:21PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 03, 2025 10:22PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 03, 2025 10:22PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2026 | 1% | +0% | 0% |
| No | 99% | Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026 | Jan 3, 2026 | 99% | +0% | 0% |