Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Weak President with too much on his plate through executive orders. Unlikely to fight on this bill over other possible options. This administration also appears more likely to succumb to lobbying than past admins.
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Why might you be wrong?
Most likely that Republicans and Democrats found this issue to rally around as a common thread to pass legislation upon. I doubt we would see this over a sweeping AI regulation bill rather than a narrowly tailored one such as the TAKE IT DOWN Act.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
NVIDIA and MSFT are incredibly close to each other in market cap currently, and it is less than 2 weeks until this resolves. General finance theory supports the idea that stocks over a short time frame often move in a random walk, so that's slight evidence for no change to occur, but the distribution of returns certainly include a large probability with NVIDIA randomly taking the lead. This is the main factor influencing my ranking, but I give Microsoft a slight edge because they have more sustainable and larger quantities of both revenue and profits, meaning their valuation is likely to be a bit more durable.
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Why might you be wrong?
Randomness plays a significant role in financial markets over a short period of time.
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