Forecasted Questions
Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 05, 2026 05:45AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Jan 05, 2026 05:45AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 21% | +49% | +6% |
| No | 30% | 79% | -49% | -6% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2026 07:44PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Jan 10, 2026 07:44PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 97% | +2% | +1% |
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2026 05:50PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Jan 12, 2026 05:50PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 20% | -10% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 80% | +10% | +0% |
Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2026 05:59PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Jan 14, 2026 05:59PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +1% |