Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 12, 2025 06:14PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 12, 2025 06:14PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 12% | 3% | +9% | +0% |
| Latvia | 12% | 2% | +10% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 12% | 3% | +9% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 12, 2025 06:15PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 12, 2025 06:15PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 2% | 0% | +2% | -2% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 9% | 2% | +7% | -6% |
| Not before 2026 | 89% | 98% | -9% | +9% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 12, 2025 06:15PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 12, 2025 06:15PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 9% | +71% | -35% |
| No | 20% | 91% | -71% | +35% |