Adjusted for time
-0.002564
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
96%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-1%)
Yes
94%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Further adjusting for time; no evidence of the necessary negotiations.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Yes
93%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusted for time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-1%)
Yes
92%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusted for time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-1%)
Yes
91%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusted for time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ceasefire in Gaza changes dynamics.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusted for time.
Why might you be wrong?
N/A