Adjusted for time.
-0.002564
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Yes
93%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-1%)
Yes
92%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusted for time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-1%)
Yes
91%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusted for time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ceasefire in Gaza changes dynamics.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recent history demonstrates that even the most significant, galvanizing events have not led to the kind of unified action required. The Israeli strike on Qatar, the collapse of a decades-old regime in Syria, and the persistent instability in multiple states have been met with a combination of reactive, symbolic gestures within existing frameworks and a deepening of bilateral, transactional relationships. This overwhelmingly points to a strategic calculus that favors flexibility and self-interest over a new collective defense pact.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A significant and unexpected shift in the geopolitical landscape would be required.
For example: an unprecedented, region-wide security crisis that is so existential that it forces rival states to set aside their differences and form a new, binding pact. This could take the form of a wider, direct war between Israel and Iran that threatens the sovereignty of multiple MENA states.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(+1%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
CNN tracker at 1502
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Black swan
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Further adjusting for time; no evidence of the necessary negotiations.
Why might you be wrong?
N/A