DGlins

D G
About:
Show more
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 1 0 1
Comments 0 0 1 0 1
Questions Forecasted 0 0 1 0 1
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
DGlins
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
DGlins
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

There are a multitude of reasons that could influence either decision behind this question. Ultimately, I very heavily favor "no" due to the following: since the article was posted by the WSJ, the United States has detained and released workers at a CONUS Hyundai Plant, a DPRK long-range missile base was visually detected on the Chinese border, and the U.S. conducted kinetic strikes against Iran. 

The detaining of the South Korean nationals at the Hyundai plant in Georgia has shaken the relations between the U.S. and South Korea, as stated in this BBC Article. This, in my opinion, puts South Korea on the high-ground for further conversations with respect to economic, military, and political relations. With a push for furthering investment in CONUS companies, the Trump administration will not likely push its hand before 30SEP25 by announcing a withdrawal of 4,500 troops from the Korean peninsula.

Secondly, since the publishing of this article by the WSJ, the same newspaper published an article covering the discovery of a secret long-range missile base near the DPRK-Chinese border. This discovery could lead to the need to increase a peninsula presence by the US rather than decrease it to ensure deterrence.

Lastly, the kinetic strike against Iran in June were conducted to increase deterrence on the behalf of a US ally - Israel. This deterrent strike also could have reinvigorated the deterrence against China by reinforcing the US will act on behalf of its allies with force if needed. This deterrence could buy time to increase infrastructure and presence in the Indo-PACOM island chains; preventing an announcement and movement of 4500 troops from the Korean peninsula by 30SEP25.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Conversely, these same points could provide reason to announce and execute the move of 4500 Soldiers. The shaky relations between South Korea and the US could embolden President Lee Jae Myung to formally request the removal of Soldiers from the peninsula. This would work with the US's previously stated idea of moving Soldiers to increase deterrence against China and would likely develop a "win-win" scenario for both administrations. Additionally, the discovery of the missile base near the Chinese border could be interpreted that DPRK-Chinese relations are strengthening further and that action must be taken to increase deterrence against China. Finally, the strike against Iran continues the precedent set by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that global superpowers are free to take action against non-superpowers with minimal to no backlash from the international community. This could lead to the development of a more aggressive posture by China and thus a more aggressive deterrence by the US.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username