RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.667039
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	-0.111944
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.00251
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	0.329222
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	-0.297049
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.673576
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.590225
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.016332
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.09244

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